5 Key Takeaways from Art Basel and UBS’s Report “The Art Market 2024”
Art Basel in Basel, 2023. Courtesy of Art Basel.
Art Basel and UBS’s annual “Art Market” report is released today, illustrating an art market currently navigating an “uncertain economic and political future.”
The eighth edition of the report released by Art Basel and UBS is authored by cultural economist Dr. Clare McAndrew and brings together data from a range of sources, including Artsy, art dealers, auction houses, collectors, art fairs, and databases.
Here, we share five key takeaways.
1. 2023 art sales values were down, but volume was up
The headline figure from this year’s report confirms what many in the art industry already knew: The art market experienced a down year in 2023. Total sales in the art market fell by 4% year over year to $65 billion. The figure represents the lowest since the COVID-blighted year of 2020, but is still higher than pre-pandemic levels when sales were $64.4 billion. Public auction and dealer sales also shrunk by 7% and 3% year over year, respectively.
The report notes that a combination of “high interest rates, inflation, and political instability” led to a slowing of growth at the top end of the market, with a 4% increase in transaction volume compared to 2022. This increase is due to the “relative buoyancy” of transactions at lower price ranges, with the share of lots valued at more than $1 million down by 6% compared to 2022. So 2023 was characterized by lower value sales, not fewer sales.
Dealers also offered higher discounts in 2023 compared to the year prior. According to data gathered for the report by Artsy, which looked at the average levels of discounts for works sold by galleries on the platform, average discounts in 2023 were 18%, compared to 16% in 2022.
2. And online art sales are resurgent
Against the backdrop of a broader art market decline, online art sales are on the ascent. Global online sales rose by 7% year over year, posting an estimated $11.8 billion in 2023. While the figure is not at the level of the online market’s historic peak of $13.3 billion in 2021, sales are more than double the levels of 2019—or any year before that.
Online sales in 2023 accounted for 18% of total art market turnover and 23% of dealer sales; the share of online sales rose across dealers of all segments of the market.
Dealers that turn over $10 million or more now represent 22% of the online art market, double the share from 2022 when that segment represented 11%. Dealers in the $500,000–$1 million range grew 12% year over year from 12% to 26%. And the largest segment, the $250,000–$500,000 range, accounted for 27% of the online market in 2023.
Positive attitudes towards the online market are growing, too. Some 48% of dealers surveyed expect online sales to grow, an increase of 7% compared to last year. And just 7% of dealers overall are anticipating a decline in online sales.
Dealers in the $250,000–$500,000 range remain the most optimistic about the future of the online market, with 56% expecting an increase in e-commerce sales, which is similar to the response in 2022. Some 53% of dealers that turn over more than $10 million predict that they will sell more online in 2024.
3. China surpasses the U.K. as the second-largest global art market
Last year was a tough one for the U.K. art market, which ceded its position as the second-largest global art market to China.
Sales in the Chinese art market increased by 9% to an estimated $12.2 billion after three straight years of decline. The report attributed the boost to “the easing of COVID-19-related restrictions and a strong surge of activity in the first half of the year,” but noted that sales in the second half of the year were “considerably slower” due to concerns about the Chinese economy and “future trajectory” of the market. Sales in the Chinese market in 2023, while higher than in 2022, are still 20% below their value in 2013.
Art sales in the U.K., meanwhile, decreased by 8% year over year to $10.9 billion in 2023, lower than pre-pandemic levels and 15% lower than a decade ago, in 2013. Art imports also declined by 16% year over year from $2.8 billion in 2022 to $2.3 billion—some 26% below 2019 levels, a persistent issue noted by British dealers since the U.K. left the European Union in 2016.
The slump means that the U.K. represented 17% of the global art market by value in 2023, falling to third place after China, which accounted for 19%.
The U.S. remains the largest art market in the world, representing 42% of total sales, but the figure is 3% lower than last year. Sales in the U.S. market dropped by 10% in 2023 to $27.2 billion, which the report attributed to a “thinner” market at the top end compared to 2022, a year that featured several high-value sales such as the record-breaking $1.6 billion Paul Allen auction at Christie’s.
Elsewhere, sales in the French market declined by 7% in 2023, but the country held its position as the fourth-largest art market in the world. Indeed, the EU overall saw sales decline by 2%.
4. The majority of dealers and auction houses expect sales to increase or stabilize in 2024.
Most dealers and auction houses expect stable or improving sales in 2024, and those predicting lower sales were in the minority both for their own businesses and with their peers.
Some 36% of dealers expect a rise in sales in 2024, though this is a decline from 45% at the end of 2022 and 62% at the end of 2021. Yet some 48% expect sales to remain stable, a rise of 9% from the end of 2022. Meanwhile, 16% expect sales to decrease, the same level year over year. The most optimistic segment was for dealers turning over less than $250,000, with 54% expecting an increase in sales and 8% predicting a decline in 2024.
Consistent with previous reports, dealers were more optimistic about their own sales compared to their peers: Some 23% of dealers expected their peers to see a rise in sales over 2024, a decline of 4% year over year.
More positivity was apparent in the auction sector, where 38% of mid-tier businesses expected sales to improve, a marginally higher figure compared with dealers, but down by 10% compared to the end of 2022. Notably, just 4% of the segment expected sales to decline, compared to 24% from the end of 2022.
In terms of current risks, political and economic volatility ranked highest among dealers’ concerns. Asked to select their three largest challenges for 2023/2024, some 36% chose that option, followed by maintaining relationships with collectors (32%), and the cost of art fairs (24%).
5. We’re seeing progress for women artists’ markets—but not enough
According to a number of metrics in the report, women artists are growing in prominence within the art market, but there is still some way to go before parity is achieved.
For dealers in both the primary and secondary markets, the share of female artists represented in 2023 was 40%, a rise of 1% compared to 2022. This was driven by galleries from the primary market, where the share of women artists rose from 42% to 46%.
In terms of sales, women artists make up a 39% share for primary-market galleries, and 30% for galleries operating in both the primary and secondary markets. Galleries with a lower share of female artists are among the lower performers, the report found: Galleries with fewer than 50% of female artists showed a drop in sales of 4% against a “relatively stable” year-over-year performance for those with three-quarters or more.
The report also found a “slow but positive” trend for women artists online. According to data gathered by Artsy, 36% of the artworks posted by all galleries on the platform in 2023 were by female artists, a steady increase year over year from the low of 28% in 2016. Collector inquiries have lagged, however, with works by women artists representing a 24% share. This figure, while lower than the number of works by women artists on Artsy, still represents an increase from 2023, when the figure was 22%. We recently analyzed this data further in The Women Artists Market Report 2024.
Correction: A previous version of this article incorrectly cited the average discounts given by galleries in 2023 and 2022. The average discounts were 18% and 16%, respectively.
